El Niño is coming- and we are not prepared.
By Storm surge by David Baird, CC BY-SA 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=123271310
A new WMO El Niño/La Niña Update indicates an 80% likelihood of an El Niño event during June–August 2026. Probabilities for this to continue until at least November are near or above 90%. Although some uncertainty remains about El Niño peak strength and timing, most forecast models suggest it will be at least moderate – and possibly strong.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), El Niño conditions are developing, fueled by unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific, and are set to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of extreme weather over the coming months.
“The science is clear: El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed.” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres.
He continued, “The only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis – ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable, and delivering early warning systems for all.”
WMO El Niño/Updates are the world’s most authoritative source of information for governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water management. For July–September, August-October and September-November, El Niño conditions are forecast to remain dominant, with probabilities consistently near or above 90%, whereas ENSO-neutral conditions persist at only around 10%.
WMO is clear though that they do not use the term “super El Niño” because it is not part of standardized operational classifications. They also highlighted that there is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Nino events. They specified though that climate change can amplify associated impacts because a warmer ocean and atmosphere increases the availability of energy and moisture for extreme weather events such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall.
Advanced warnings are vital
In late April to mid-May, the sea-surface temperature in the central-eastern Equatorial Pacific – the area used as a monitoring reference – was approaching El Niño thresholds, according to observations from different platforms used by WMO.
These increasing surface anomalies are being fed by unusually warm subsurface conditions across the tropical Pacific, with temperatures exceeding 6 °C above average and providing a substantial reservoir of heat that is contributing to the observed surface warming.
Meanwhile, the Southern Oscillation Index – which is the atmospheric component of El Niño – is also consistent with developing El Niño conditions.
“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event – which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean. The most recent El Niño, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
“The WMO community will be carefully monitoring conditions in the coming months to inform decision-making by governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors. Advance seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities,” said Celeste Saulo.
Monitoring informs action
El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); one of the most powerful naturally occurring climate patterns on Earth.
El Niño is characterized by a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to twelve months.
It generally begins developing between March and June and reaches its peak intensity between November and February, with impacts on global temperatures typically being most pronounced in the second year after development.
The effects of each El Niño/La Niña event vary depending on the intensity, duration, time of year when it develops, and also how it interacts with other climate variability modes (such as the Indian Ocean Dipole). Not all regions of the world are affected, and even within a region, impacts can be different. Even when ENSO is neutral, extreme weather can still occur.
The strength of an ENSO event is highly significant – whether it is classed as weak, moderate, strong or very strong. Even a moderate El Niño makes some weather and climate extremes more likely.
The WMO has already recently warned about more global temperature record ahead, with the next few years from 2026 seeing an 86% chance that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record.
Their report continued that, ‘It is very likely (91% chance) that the global mean near-surface temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average levels for at least one year between 2026 and 2030. This level was also temporarily exceeded in 2024, when the global average surface temperature was about 1.55 °C above the pre-industrial baseline.’
Despite these clear warnings, governments around the world still appear to be slow to act. Politicians in the UK still are not making the public fully aware of the dangers and risks posed by the climate crisis, by agreeing on a national televised emergency briefing.
Their response of ‘Sit tight and assess’ is matching entirely the satirical ‘Don’t Look Up’ political approach to a global threat.
The climate crisis is not going to arrive at some point in the future- it is here now, with threats to life today.
Climate Thoughts with Brian 