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2024 global temperature record is consistent with model predictions
Credit Florida Fish And Wildlife A new study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences argues that the record warmth was entirely consistent with expectations on a warming planet. When accounting for human-caused warming alongside natural climate variability like El Niño and La Niña climate patterns, the 2024 temperatures actually showed that climate models today are capturing the ongoing warming of the planet well.
Research from climate scientist Michael Mann, Presidential Distinguished Professor of Earth & Environmental Science, and colleagues vindicates climate models and reframes the record heat of 2024.
To counter the sensationalisation of climate science reporting, which can sometimes lead to ‘doomist’ narratives’ which in turn ‘freeze’ public and political action, Mann wants to rebuild trust in the complexities and nuances of science.
‘The truth is bad enough’
Mann commented, ‘Overstating the mystery of events like 2024 feeds the narrative that scientists are either hiding something or don’t know what they’re doing, neither of which is true. The truth is bad enough. We don’t have to invent or exaggerate the gravity of the climate threat to establish the case for urgent action.’
With global temperatures reaching a new high in 2023 and 2024, and with 2024 being declared the hottest year on record, Mann felt that some scientists appeared to be suggesting that this warming was inexplicable, or that the warming was outside what climate models had suggested. He argued, ‘That framing is unfortunate,’ he says. ‘It makes it sound like we don’t understand what’s driving climate change.’
Mann and his team used a modeling technique that combined real-world temperature observations with climate model results to generate 40,000 synthetic climate simulations, essentially creating tens of thousands of alternative versions of climate history. Mann calls this a sort of “climate multiverse,” where human-caused warming remains constant across all simulations, but unpredictable events like El Niño and La Niña get randomized.
The simulations showed that 2024’s record-setting heat was far from an anomaly. When accounting for human-caused warming, the researchers estimated it had roughly a 12 percent probability of occurring—in other words, it could be expected to occur on average once in eight years.
‘There has been a lot of discussion recently about whether the extraordinary warmth of that year means something unexpected is happening in the climate system, including suggestions that models can’t explain what we’re seeing,’ says co-author Xueke Li, an assistant professor at City University of Hong Kong who was formerly a research associate at Penn. ‘Our results show that recent record temperatures would have been extremely unlikely without human influence—but they are entirely consistent with expectations from global warming.’
‘A strong vote of confidence in climate science’
The findings offer a strong vote of confidence for current climate models, which have long incorporated the warming response to human-generated carbon pollution as a core input. Mann says the results are a clear signal that human-caused warming is now the most dominant force shaping our climate—without it, he notes, those temperature highs from two years prior would have been essentially impossible.
‘One of the most important conclusions of the paper is that climate models are doing their job, at least when it comes to the overall warming of the planet,’ Li adds. ‘Rather than contradicting climate models, the 2024 temperature spike—and the ability of the models to explain it—actually reinforces their credibility.’
The paper published today reinforced that climate models were a sound basis for climate policymaking and found no evidence for any departure from expectations of typical natural climate- that there has been no ‘unexpected surge’. ‘Our results show that recent record temperatures would have been extremely unlikely without human influence—but they are entirely consistent with expectations from global warming.’
The paper concluded, ‘Recent record warmth, in conclusion, does not contradict state-of-the-art climate model historical simulations and future projections of GMST. Such models continue to provide accurate assessments of planetary warming and a sound basis for climate policymaking.’
Urgency and Agency
Mann also argued that the same climate models that flag risks of rapid ice sheet disintegration or prolonged heatwaves, flooding and droughts, also point toward a reason for hope: ‘One thing the models tell us with greater confidence now is that the warming of Earth’s surface will cease shortly after we reduce our carbon emissions to zero. There’s urgency, but there’s agency, too.’
Will the 2024 record be broken soon?
Those models also point to what’s coming. Forecasters currently estimate a 60 to 70 percent chance of a new El Niño emerging in mid-2026. ‘When—not if—another big El Niño happens, we shouldn’t be surprised when the 2024 record is broken,’ says co-author Byron Steinman, a professor at the University of Minnesota Duluth. -
Politicians and public attend Climate Emergency Briefing in York
Credit Sophia Chen
Chris Packham: ‘You must listen to the science. Because if you don’t, then things go wrong and lives are lost.’
A dynamic and purposeful viewing of the National Emergency Briefing took place in York yesterday to a packed Tempest Anderson Hall. Over 850 screenings have now taken place around the country, from church halls, to community centres to festival pop-up screenings with the aim of promoting public awareness of the extent of the climate crisis and an appropriate response. All that remains is for the Government to respond to the public pressure and make a televised National Emergency Climate Briefing to the public in a prime-time slot. Barely 100 MPs and members of the devolved assemblies have openly signed for such a televised event and as viewings around the country grow, the hope surely is that the inevitable will follow.
York Climate Connect organised this latest climate viewing, followed by a productive discussion of how people responded to the viewing. Various panellists attended ranging from the political, educational and community spheres. It was particularly notable that Rachael Maskell, the MP for York Central made a point of attending, as decision- makers and policy makers need to be fully informed of issues and crises which will impact their constituents. Sadly, only about a third of MPs attended last year’s successful National Climate Briefing in Westminster Hall.
Rachael Maskell commented, “As we face a growing national emergency, it is important that we are all aware of the risks facing us, which is why the National Emergency Briefing initiative is so important. The positive focus of the briefing helps us all to look forwards and understand that the efforts we make now can help our future. During my time as an MP, I have consistently championed work on the environment and the future of our planet and will continue in this endeavour to improve the future for all in York Central.”
Credit Sophia Chen
A ‘compelling case’ for climate action
Professor of International Politics and Climate Change at the University of Leeds, Jan Selby, was also a panellist at yesterday’s event and commented, “The briefing makes a really compelling case for why we need to accelerate action on climate and nature now, before it’s too late. Watch it! And then act!”
Leading environmentalist Chris Packham openly called for more awareness to continue to break through with the public. “I’d encourage people everywhere to attend a screening. It creates exactly the kind of honest local conversation we now urgently need, both about what these changes mean where we live, and about what we can do together to address them.”
In comments last year to parliamentarians, he added, ‘We must be able to know what is really going on, and none more so than many of you. Those that we have elected to represent us, to guide us, to protect our future. You must listen to the science. Because if you don’t, then things go wrong and lives are lost.’
‘The public deserves the truth’
Rosie Toothill, from Parents for Future, voiced her concerns as a parent for the state of the planet Earth for her children. “As a parent of 2 young boys the reality of the climate crisis really scares me, which is why I am a member of Parents for Future, and why I believe the National Emergency Briefing is such an important campaign. I really believe the public deserves, and must know, the truth of what we face within years, if we do not tackle the climate emergency, and demand stronger action from our leaders. But also more importantly that the public and local community within York know there is so much that can be done, especially when we act as a collective.”
Over 200 York residents and visitors made a point of giving up their free time on a Saturday afternoon to be more proactive in the fight against the climate disinformation which seems to deluge social media sites. Climate disinformation which is then spread by populist politicians, simply intent on continued support from fossil fuel companies and interests.
The calls for a national televised event are growing and politicians who wish to be leaders and not followers, will surely amplify these calls, until what seemed like an impossible task- to have a televised emergency briefing- becomes inevitable.
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Review of ‘Climate Wayfinding: Healing Ourselves and the Planet We Call Home’ by Katharine K Wilkinson
Wilkinson’s book crackles with purpose and the potential of what might be possible. It reminds us that there is a ‘we’ at the heart of this journey and that we are bound and bonded by a common framework of humanity.
‘Climate Wayfinding’ is a book which encourages- even demands- time for reflection; time for strengthening those links with others; and time to breathe. As Wilkinson notes, ‘Climate Wayfinding is about finding our way forward and conjuring the future, yes. But it is also about remembering.’ It offers a map to guide us on our future, a map, which until now, did not exist.
The book acts as a guide, to help navigate questions about identity- about who we are, about whom we impact and about why we care about the issues we care about. ‘What does it mean to be human, here and now? To help tend to a changing planet? To devote ourselves to the genuinely common good? What futures can we dare to dream?’ It is purposefully a meditative book, which asks us to gently confront our position on the path and to look around to work towards a positive, potential future. ‘We need to look inward with care, look outward with curiosity and then look forward with courage.’
Wilkinson does not shy away from the fact that many peoples around the world are already facing climate breakdowns and injustices. ‘All of it is happening in a profoundly unequal world, with those who are already in jeopardy or facing injustice, and who have scarcely contributed to this crisis, suffering most. Our new troubles inflame existing ones.’
Based on first impressions, ‘Climate Wayfaring’ may appear to some as being a superficial pathway, as being a gentle approach, when more direct action is needed. The book, however, reminds us that there is a strength and a power which comes from looking at the world which we care about with love. ‘I long for climate healing motivated not from wanting to fix something but from wanting to love something’
We re-learn that each one of us is not an isolated ‘cell’, but instead part of various networks and communities, which spread out from us and are a part of us. ‘Each of us is a node of possibility for healing the climate crisis— whoever we are and whatever we’ve got to give.’ We are not one identity- we are many- from being a child, from being a parent, from being a volunteer, a sports coach, part of a tennis club, a neighbour, a friend, a carer or a stranger. We are multi-faceted beings, with strong bonds to each other and the world. ‘When facing a planetary crisis, as with a personal one, it’s best not to go it alone.’
‘Climate Wayfinding’ unashamedly puts people at the heart of its strategies, concepts and narratives and warns that a ‘peopleless approach’ risks missing the opportunity to bring people along on the journey. ‘Because if the problem of climate change originates in human activity, then planetary healing must as well.’ Wilkinson puts her reader at the heart of her text and reminds us of our awesome power to effect change. ‘So much about our world is out of your hands and mine, yet potential also sits right at our fingertips.’ She celebrates Dr. Elizabeth “Beth” Sawin, who said, ‘The bottom line is this: You write in order to change the world, knowing perfectly well that you probably can’t, but also knowing that literature is indispensable.… The world changes according to the way people see it, and if you alter, even by a millimeter, the way a person looks or people look at reality, then you can change it.’
Wayfinding or Wayfaring?
Curiously, there has been an unconscious subliminal ‘error’ which has crept in whenever I have written the title of this book for this review. Far too often, I have written ‘Climate Wayfaring’ instead of ‘Climate Wayfinding’ and there may be something worth exploring in this slip. How we travel, and how we fare on the path are of equal importance
Wilkinson concludes by acknowledging the limits of ‘Climate Wayfinding.’ That the path continues on and on, opening up new futures to travel. ‘Climate Wayfinding’, then, cannot bring us to a final terminus or clear conclusion, and it shouldn’t try to. This chapter of life is reminding me, viscerally, that the act of finding our way will only continue to open.’
She finds great solace from her belief that we are equipped, curious, and ready for the path ahead, that we all have a part to play and decisions lie ahead of us. ‘We are built for the necessary work of our era. We have within us a seedbed of narrative, imagination, and navigation. We have within us a seedbed of the world we want to grow.’
When facing climate breakdown and considering that the problem is too great, it is fitting to remember the words of Tolkien and to gain comfort and strength in the thought that maybe, maybe we are meant to be the ones who are here- to be alive at this time, in this place, with our powers to change the world for the better.
“I wish it need not have happened in my time,” said Frodo.
“So do I,” said Gandalf, “and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”
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NOT A SINGLE COMPLETED WATER COMPANY PROSECUTION FOR POLLUTION INCIDENTS IN LAST FIVE YEARS
In yet another exclusive on pollution incidents, Channel 4 revealed last night (Wed 6th May) that the Environment Agency has not completed a single prosecution of a water company for any pollution occurring in the last five years, despite almost 2 million sewage discharges.
None of the completed prosecutions relate to the thousands of serious pollution incidents that happened since mid- 2021.
Channel 4 pointed out that while there have been examples of water companies facing sentences over the past five years, that every prosecution relates to incidents prior to mid-2021. The most recent water pollution incident to be successfully prosecuted was Welsh Water, who were fined £90,000 in 2024 for “exceeding permitted levels of sewage effluent” into the River Wye between August 2020-June 2021.
58 prosecutions out of 11,474 investigations
According to the EA’s own data, in the past decade there have been very few prosecutions. In a letter to parliament’s Environment Committee, the EA’s Chief Executive Philip Duffy said that between 2015-2025 there were 11,474 water company investigations, but only 58 of these resulted in a prosecution- a prosecution rate of just 0.5%.
Avoiding criminal convictions
The Environment Agency however, blamed the time for investigations to reach court, sometimes taking years, and they claim there is a viable, quicker alternative – the “Enforcement Undertaking” (EU).
Rather than face prosecution, undertakings mean water companies can offer to make payments, sometimes exceeding £1 million, to environmental trusts or charities to compensate for their offence.
But undertakings allow water companies to avoid criminal conviction entirely. By paying a charity for serious offences, they avoid a court appearance and are given ‘a get out of jail free card.’
Whistleblower Robert Forrester, an EA employee for more than 20 years, and who appeared in Channel 4’s recent docudrama “Dirty Business”, portrayed as a female Environment Agency employee who, like Forrester himself, leaked data to sewage campaigners, commented:
“It’s not like these serious crimes aren’t happening. They’re actually happening more and more…[EUs mean] the deterrent effect is no longer there…It’s a way of avoiding the criminal system.’
A ‘Get out of Jail Card’
Feargal Sharkey, the waterways campaigner, who appeared on the Channel 4 broadcast, argued that the fines simply don’t work and that prison sentences should happen.
‘For water companies, it’s simply a get out of jail card. It’s a very cheap alternative to what actually should be the consequences for them.
What we need to change is the behaviour of these water companies. The fines don’t work. It’s time we actually started upholding the law and sending some of these directors and executives to jail.’
What we need to do is actually now demonstrate to these companies we are prepared to enforce the law as it stands to hold them accountable and to properly remedy the situation, not simply let them off with what effectively is a slap on the wrist.’
If we put one water boss in jail for 6 weeks, the whole industry would utterly transform itself at 9 o’clock tomorrow morning when those companies open for business.’
The whole thing is a sham and it’s an avoidance scheme by government. And, in fact, government now for me, have become as wilfully complicit in all of this as the Environment Agency, by knowingly, blatantly, deliberately refusing to enforce the law and letting these companies carry on this fraud and a criminal fraud against billpayers in England and Wales.
EUs are ‘a brilliant tool’
Defending the use of Enforcement Undertakings (EUs), Helen Wakeham, the EA’s Director of Water argued,
“They are a brilliant tool for the Environment Agency. In the past year, the Environment Agency secured £8.5 million for the water environment through enforcement undertakings. The reason why we use them is they are faster than criminal prosecutions, so a prosecution can take us years to bring to court and take up a lot of our time.”
She added, “We do take action on every water pollution incident report that we receive. Some of those are exceptionally minor, a handful are serious, and those are the ones that we investigate very thoroughly.”
However, a prosecution rate of pollution incidents of just 0.5% between 2015-2025 is not enough to fool the public into thinking that serious enforcement is happening.
Downgrading serious incidents to ‘minor’ problems
The Environment Agency’s rules state that they would not normally accept an EU for the most serious incidents of Category 1 and Category 2, but FOI data indicates the systematic downgrading of thousands of serious incidents to ‘minor’ problems, without even visiting the site where the pollution occurred.
Between 2016-2025, there were almost 6,000 examples of this downgrading.
Public interest not served by court trials
In a shocking admission, Water UK, which represents the water industry, told Channel 4 News: “The Government’s independent review of the water sector concluded that the public interest was not always best served by years of court proceedings. Undertakings can ensure faster accountability and deliver funding directly into the environment.”
With over 100,000 signatures on a referendum to bring the water industry into public ownership, it appears that the public do not take kindly to industry deciding what is in their best interest. Not when they can’t swim in rivers, seas and waterways, while pollution incidents continue unabated.
UK Government has no intention of nationalising water companies
The UK Government responded to this public petition, saying, ‘The Government has no intention of nationalising the water sector currently and does not believe that a national referendum would deliver faster improvements for customers or the environment. Any move to nationalisation would take many years to implement, involve significant legal and operational complexity, and risk prolonged uncertainty and disruption across the sector.’
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Review of ‘The Fate of the World: A History and Future of the Climate Crisis’ by Prof Bill McGuire
‘Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,
Creeps in this petty pace from day to day,
To the last syllable of recorded time;
And all our yesterdays have lighted fools
The way to dusty death.’
Shakespeare’s words, from over 400 years ago, seem shockingly relevant today, as we face an existential climate crisis, but we witness no real decisive climate action. We have been brought to this moment- we are the ‘lighted fools’- and appear to have learned nothing from the lessons from our ‘recorded time’.
McGuire’s ‘The Fate of the World’ offers a comprehensive and thorough lesson into our planet’s deep geological time and warns that our climate conditions are close to matching those of the last interglacial period- the Eemian- and could even match the Pliocene conditions, last seen on this planet over 2.5 million years ago. A prehistoric future which needs to be avoided.
Make no mistake- this is a challenging, difficult, and relentless read. On the other hand, ‘The Fate of the World’ should be a necessary and compulsory read, if we are to change the looming future. It is dedicated ‘To all who come after us’,and they will inherit our Earth. What that world looks like then will depend on our actions now. ‘Never have the actions of one generation meant so much for those that follow.’
McGuire urges us to be good ancestors and shake off the short-term shackles which are keeping us prisoner to the fossil-fuel status quo. ‘Yet future generations have no say in what actions we take today, nor do those making decisions in the first quarter of the twenty-first century have to live with the worst of their consequences.’
McGuire does not shy away from giving blunt scientific assessments and his expert climate views are important if we are going to change our current trajectory of economic and capitalist ‘business as usual’,while the planet burns. Or as McGuire comments, ‘It is an insane situation, and it can’t go on.’
McGuire’s ‘history book about the future’ then, details the scientific arguments about the impact on our world of our Sun, how what we see as a ‘constant’ has been anything but in its life cycle, and still has a future of its own to complete. He discusses the varying levels of carbon in the atmosphere over the life of the planet; how the planet has witnessed deep freezes and incredible oceans; how the Earth remains restless, while still giving humans the ‘Goldilocks’ conditions we need to survive, by its place in the solar system; and the real risks involved by a weakened AMOC. ‘It is no exaggeration to say that what happens to the AMOC will play a huge role in determining the course of future climate breakdown.’
McGuire notes and acknowledges that species rise and fall on our planet is inevitable and that humanity’s ego and arrogance is a dangerous combination. ‘Something like three-quarters of a billion species of animals, plants and fungi are thought to have existed since life first emerged on our planet, of which 99.9 per cent are now extinct.’
‘There can be no doubt that our beloved planet, as we have come to know it, is in deep, deep trouble.’
Extreme weather events around the globe are certainly causing people to realise that something is out of kilter; that our world today is different from that of 50 or 100 years ago. Droughts, floodings, wildfires, extreme heat and sea-level rise are all adding up to a world on the move- desperate to escape climate conditions in their own environment. Climate migration will become a more familiar term in the coming decades. ‘2024 was not only the hottest year on record but probably since the last interglacial period 125,000 years ago. And it won’t stop there. The truth is that, as global heating continues to flourish, 2024 will eventually prove to be one of the coldest years of the twenty-first century.’
McGuire quotes a 2020 report by the Geological Society of London, which stated, ‘The current speed of human-induced CO₂ change and warming is nearly without precedent in the entire geological record.’ An unbelievable indictment of humans as ‘conscious accomplices on the journey towards our own demise.’ McGuire debunks the climate-denying tropes that ‘the Earth has been hotter before’ or that ‘Levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have been higher in the past’, by focusing on the crux of the climate issue- often deliberately missed by deniers- that the rate of change offers humanity little chance of adapting to a new world. ‘And this is the crux of the climate emergency facing us today- not the absolute temperature, nor the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, but the staggering and unprecedented speed with which they are rising.’
The fires of Isengard
To enter into Tolkien’s world, the fossil-fuel fires of Isengard have been burning for far too long. The character of Merry warns, ‘The fires of Isengard will spread. And the woods of Tuckborough and Buckland will burn. And…and all that was once green and good in this world will be gone. There won’t be a Shire.’
McGuire does not go so far as to fall into the ‘doomist paralysis’ narrative. ‘Do we just give in? Absolutely not. The future unravelling of society will be brutal, but it doesn’t negate the need to fight today to keep every tonne of fossil carbon out of the atmosphere.’
He repeatedly urges that drastic global emission cuts can still make a difference to aid with climate resilience. ‘I haven’t completely lost hope, and neither should you. I did not write this book to dismay or dishearten, to foster panic or to feed inertia but to galvanise action to do what needs to be done: to cut emissions as fast as possible; to prepare for a new and much harsher world.’
He repeats this message throughout ‘The Fate of the World’, with his typical pragmatism. ‘All is not lost, however. If we take the urgent action required in the next few decades to rapidly row back on emissions, it may yet be possible to dodge PETM or early Eocene conditions.’
He acknowledges that the will to act quickly, sadly still lies in the hands of politicians and world leaders and that collective action is still sorely missing. ‘We have the means within our grasp- even at this late stage- to head off Armageddon. But we lack the collective will to do what needs to be done.’
‘No fate but what we make’
The map of our world has been redrawn in the past and will be redrawn again in the future. With a best estimate for the global average temperature rise of 2.7℃ by 2100, based on current policies and actions, it feels that our fate has already been sealed.
As McGuire points out, we can no longer hide behind the shield of scientific ignorance- climate scientists have been warning us for decades of the likely track ahead if we continue to allow carbon emissions to rise unchecked. By now we need to ask, why are we doing this on purpose to ourselves and the planet?
‘We can no longer pretend to be sleepwalking into climate catastrophe. We are doing it consciously, with our eyes wide open, and hang the consequences.’
But.
Our future- our fate- is not yet carved in stone.
We can still be a great people, if we wish to be. Our path has been lighted from the past and we now have the light to show the way to climate justice and climate resilience for all.
We all now get to write ‘The Fate of the World’ ourselves. We carry the fate of us all.
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Europe is warming more than twice as fast as the global average
Image credit Saiyna Bashir European State of the Climate report provides comprehensive overview of climate indicators
Findings released today from European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) highlight key changes in climate indicators for the world’s fastest warming continent. A range of factors are addressed in the report ranging from cold environments, marine ecosystems, the threat to biodiversity, wildfire risks and glacier loss.
The European State of the Climate report, highlighted that, ‘At least 95% of Europe experienced above-average annual temperatures in 2025.’ It highlighted that the sea surface temperature is the highest on record and that the annual sea surface temperature for the European region was the highest on record, and 86% of the region experienced at least ‘strong’ marine heatwaves.
Unequivocal climate change signals
Dušan Chrenek, Principal Adviser for Digital Green Transition at DG Clima, said: “The climate change signal remains unequivocal across Europe, and the European State of the Climate 2025 report is a stark reminder that we must sustain and accelerate both adaptation and mitigation efforts. This edition provides compelling evidence of the profound impacts of climate change on intensity of extreme weather events, biodiversity and economy, while reinforcing Europe’s strategic ambition to further strengthen its Earth observation capabilities by harnessing cutting-edge technologies.”
Fears are already building about the coming summer temperature for Europe, with a possible ‘super El-Niño’ developing this year. Increased temperatures put lives at risk, whether this is through wildfires, droughts, heat stress and flooding. Wildfires are already blazing in Britain, with Saddleworth Moor being one of the areas around Greater Manchester seeing recent blazes. The European State of the Climate report states that, ‘Wildfires burnt around 1,034,550 hectares, the largest area on record.’ With a long summer still ahead of the UK, more areas may be at risk, causing significant levels of damage and loss.
‘Climate change is our present reality’
Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate at ECMWF, said: “The ESOTC 2025 paints a stark picture: the pace of climate change demands more urgent action. With rising temperatures, and widespread wildfires and drought, the evidence is unequivocal; climate change is not a future threat, it is our present reality. In confronting the impact on biodiversity loss, we need to match the speed of adaptation happening in the clean energy transition and at the same time, ensure robust science continues to underpin our policies and decisions.”
Rising wildfire risk is a key priority for the European Commission, as the IPCC indicates that wildfire threats are likely to increase across all regions of Europe.
Record marine heat and ocean warming
The report also noted the global ocean has absorbed about 90% of the excess heat caused by human-induced greenhouse gas emissions. In 2025, the European ocean region experienced its highest annual sea surface temperature on record, marking the fourth consecutive year of record warmth.
Percentage of the area of the WMO RA VI (Europe) ocean region experiencing marine heatwave conditions each year from 1982 to 2025
Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization, said: “The WMO State of the Climate has revealed the imbalance of energy on our planet, and the European State of the Climate produced jointly by WMO and ECMWF reflects the impacts for Europe. Our joint effort to produce the ESOTC reflects how climate change is impacting biodiversity and the bold initiatives taken by European policy makers to protect and restore it.”
Climate indicators are flashing, but is anyone listening?
As well as wildfire risks and above-average temperatures, the impact on Europe’s glacier loss was also fully addressed in the report. Glaciers experienced a net mass loss, with Iceland recording its second-largest glacier mass loss on record. Additionally, the Greenland Ice Sheet lost 139 gigatonnes (139 billion tonnes) of ice – around 1.5 times the volume stored in all glaciers in the European Alps.’ With these ice losses, more people are exposed to water pressures, with every centimetre increasing exposure to an additional 6 million people to coastal flooding.
The impact on biodiversity
As well as the risks posed to humans, nature is also being placed under increased stress due to shrinking and shifting habitats, Sensitive ecosystems, such as seagrass meadows in the Mediterranean Sea and peatland wildfires are being impacted by the rising climate change indicators. Marine and terrestrial biodiversity is recognised as vital for a sustainable future, but is currently being degraded by climate change. European policies and frameworks strongly connect climate and biodiversity, with a clear focus on ecosystem resilience.
Informing policy decisions
Mauro Facchini, Head of Copernicus Unit at the European Commission, said: “The European State of the Climate 2025 report demonstrates once more the value of our joint efforts to have a world-class European Earth observation system. Maintaining our own state-of-the-art, reliable data records of our Earth system is vital for making informed policy decisions in our rapidly changing climate. Copernicus is pivotal to help us preserve our sovereignty, our environment, food systems, safety, and economy.”
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CHANNEL 4 NEWS EXCLUSIVE: KING’S PRIVATE ESTATE TRIED TO SELL TOXIC LAND TO COUNCIL
Image supplied by Channel 4
Channel 4 News has uncovered the King’s private estate tried to sell land contaminated with toxic illegal waste in Wigan to the local council.
In January, Channel 4 News revealed the 25,000-ton site, dubbed UK’s “most dangerous illegal waste dump”, was on land largely owned by the Duchy of Lancaster – the King’s extensive private portfolio of properties and estates.
When approached by the programme the Duchy said it had offered to transfer the land to Wigan Council in July last year.
However, correspondence between the council and the Duchy, obtained by Channel 4 News via a Freedom of Information request, to be shown tonight (MON) reveals it actually tried to sell the site to the council at full market price.
Then in February, after the Channel 4 News investigation aired, the Duchy followed up with the Council explicitly offering to transfer the land for free.
The Duchy wrote: “We have discussed the matter with the Duchy Solicitor who has confirmed the Duchy will transfer the property to the Council for nil value and with each party bearing their own costs in the hope that that will assist the Council in dealing with the property in conjunction with its own adjoining land.”
Initially, the council tried to keep the correspondence hidden from the public, rejecting the FOI request due to ‘legal privilege’. Channel 4 News appealed to its Legal, Governance and Election’s Division, eventually the council apologised and provided the documents.
Emails from the Duchy’s solicitors, Farrer & Co, show in addition to the transfer offer, the Duchy attempted to sell the contaminated land at market value to the council.
In July, the Duchy wrote: “… it may be possible to sell the land to you. Any sale would have to be at open market value and the Duchy of Lancaster’s valuers, and our costs would have to be paid as well.”
Wigan Council today (MON) told Channel 4 News it “respectfully declined” the Duchy’s offer.
Member of Parliament for Makerfield, Josh Simons, told Channel News: “My constituents have suffered for years because of this disgusting illegal waste dump, put there by organised criminals. The idea that anyone would profit from this land is disgraceful. The opposite should be true: everyone, no matter who they are, should roll up their sleeves to help solve the problem.”
Last month, Greater Manchester Mayor, Andy Burnham, told the programme that the Duchy’s plan to hand contaminated land to the local council is “not an acceptable response”. Since then, the government announced it will fund the clean-up of the Wigan site, although this has yet to begin.
A Duchy of Lancaster spokesperson told Channel 4 News: “We continue to work with Wigan Council to try and find an effective resolution to the illegal waste site.”
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MPs call for urgent, drastic and decisive action on pervasive PFAS pollution
A report, published today, by a cross-party Environmental Audit Committee, called for the phase-out of ‘forever chemicals’ in non-essential uses, as well as recommending a group- based approach in tackling PFAS chemicals, rather than an individual approach of separate PFAS.
The report argued that current UK Government action is lagging behind standards in Europe and outlined a raft of recommendations to help the Government move faster in closing the regulatory gap following Brexit. ‘The UK Government recently published its first PFAS Plan, a welcome step. However, the Government’s plan is short on decisive actions to prevent the harmful build-up of these chemicals in the environment. Our inquiry found that the UK faces a growing legacy of PFAS pollution, alongside continued emissions.
It urged, ‘The Government must introduce restrictions on PFAS in non-essential applications, such as clothing and food packaging, from 2027.’ As well as these restrictions, the report called strongly for the need to hold polluters to account for PFAS pollution by making them pay for clean-up costs. The EAC also strongly advocated for the Government to act in line with environmental principles by following a preventative and precautionary approach to PFAS chemicals with the aim to reduce exposure to both people and the environment.
What are PFAS chemicals?
PFAS chemicals are a class of over 10,000 chemicals which are used in a range of everyday objects and products, from cosmetics, to outdoor wear, to household cookware products, to schoolwear and have historically been used in the fire-fighting industry. They are often referred to as “forever chemicals” because they do not easily break down. More and more research indicates that PFAS chemicals affect multiple organ systems, with reported links to some cancers, thyroid and liver dysfunction, developmental impacts and fertility impacts.
The regulatory gap
The report repeatedly highlighted the growing gap between chemicals standards in Europe and those in the UK, and criticised the UK’s current approach, which enables the continued use of PFAS until each individual chemical is assessed and restricted. It stated, ‘UK REACH, the domestic chemicals regulatory framework, has fallen behind the European Union in restricting PFAS and is too slow to respond to emerging evidence.’ By adopting this singular approach, the EAC argued that this delay would significantly increase the future burden of cleanup and did not act in a way which followed environmental principles to protect the public health. ‘Due to the impracticality of assessing thousands of PFAS one by one, and
the risk that new substances emerge faster than they can be evaluated, the UK’s current approach leaves regulators struggling to keep pace with industry innovation.’
PFAS pollution has come at a cost
Chair of the Environmental Audit Committee Toby Perkins MP said:
“From frying pans to fire extinguishers, PFAS are now central to every day and some lifesaving products, and nearly all of us will have some level of PFAS in our bodies. But evidence we heard throughout our inquiry suggests that our dependence on PFAS has come with a cost to the environment, and perhaps to human health too.
The Government has already published a PFAS Action Plan, an important step that the Committee welcomes. But it does not go far enough. It appears to be a plan to eventually have a plan, rather than a concrete set of commitments to reduce and remediate PFAS.
We do not need to panic, but we do need to take sensible precautions.’
Perking urged that following the precautionary principle was vital- a principle which requires approval before coming to the market, rather than waiting for proof of harm of a product.
‘Our report calls for the Government to phase out PFAS uses that are clearly non-essential, such as in kitchen equipment and school uniforms, and to take a precautionary approach to approving new PFAS. Rather than waiting for proof that a chemical is harmful before banning it, companies should need approval before they introduce a new PFAS substance.
The Government must also ensure that those who pollute with PFAS pay for the damage they cause. It must consult on establishing a national PFAS Remediation Fund and explore options to truly hold polluters to account. Where no one can be held accountable, local authorities must be given the funds they need to clean up.’
The cost to communities
One of the places focused on in the report was the Yorkshire town of Bentham. PFAS pollution in Bentham has come under sharp scrutiny over the past few years, with journalist Pippa Neill’s investigative work on PFAS levels on the Angus Fire site. Some residents in Bentham then became the focus of a recent ITV documentary, ‘In Our Blood: The Forever Chemicals Scandal’, where high levels of PFAS were discovered in their blood. An environmental report was also released that indicated possible pathways for PFAS exposure to residents. A spokesperson for Palatine Media, the PR company used by Angus Fire told me that ‘Angus are still in the process of obtaining legal advice in relation to this matter.’
On 15 January 2026, the Environmental Audit Committee visited Bentham, North Yorkshire and held three roundtables near Bentham as part of its inquiry on ‘Addressing the risks from Perfluoroalkyl and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS)’. From those conversations, the report notes that an absence of regulatory guidelines was one of the main barriers in developing comprehensive awareness of the extent of PFAS pollution.A ‘Participant said that not knowing the impact of PFAS was the worst aspect of the issue. The absence of agreed safe thresholds was highlighted as a major barrier to understanding risk to health. Participants noted significant barriers to obtaining testing, including limited UK capability and high personal costs for private testing (around £750 per test)’.
Mat Young, from the Cleaner Bentham campaign group told me, ‘Cleaner Bentham welcomes the Parliamentary Committee’s advice to the UK Government and hopes it will now act on the report’s findings.
Over the past two years, residents, regulators and local councils have worked to bring evidence forward, and we are grateful that the Environmental Audit Committee engaged directly with those affected.
He urged for positive action to support communities, ‘The next step is strengthening the evidence base. Cleaner Bentham is launching the 20p Challenge — a national campaign to support independent epidemiology studies in Bentham and across the UK.
If enough people give just 20p, we can begin building the scientific evidence needed to protect communities.’
Can PFAS be destroyed at scale?
Once remediated or removed from the environment, PFAS must still be destroyed. However, the UK’s current capacity to destroy PFAS is reliant on high-temperature incineration and only two hazardous waste incinerators in the UK are permitted to destroy PFAS.
The Committee therefore warns that the UK’s current incineration capacity is “insufficient”. It says that the Government should assess how much PFAS-containing waste it expects from future restrictions, and assess whether the UK’s high-temperature incineration capacity is sufficient. It should also commit within six months to fund the research and development of destruction technologies that use alternatives to incineration.
In bold language, there was a clear warning that industry could not be relied upon to take sufficient action and that Government intervention was needed for preventative and Precautionary action to reduce PFAS exposure.
‘They also warn that voluntary action on PFAS or self-regulation by industry are not sufficient to reduce PFAS emissions. They recommend the Government take preventative and precautionary action to reduce PFAS exposure.’
Whether this bold and challenging report from UK MPs will be enough to bring the UK closer to higher environmental and chemical standards remains to be seen. Public awareness has grown over the dangers posed by PFAS chemicals and continues to do so. Public anger at companies who have profited from using toxic PFAS chemicals in their products is also growing in momentum.
The days of playing ‘whack-a-mole’ with individual PFAS, need to now be over. Public health must trump PFAS profits.
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Review of ‘The Visual Life of Climate Change’ by Saffron O’Neill
‘The Visual Life of Climate Change’ is an enthralling exploration and evaluation of the efficacy of climate related images and challenges the reader to be more critical of the ideologies and narratives posed by any image.
O’Neill makes the early point that, ‘Images are not simply facile illustrations accompanying the ‘serious’ work of textual communication, but have substantial power to shape the world around us’. The decisions of fast-paced news desks to locate and then use relatable and accessible images can significantly impact the actions and attitudes of the intended audience. O’Neill’s message is to move us towards a more inclusive and responsible climate visual discourse, one which reinvigorates the tired and over-used imagery which is lacking in ‘punch’. Changing our images about what a different future may look like, will be the foundations and cornerstone for working towards this more positive future.
Climate change has an image problem
The author effectively argues that we are surrounded by a world of images, which engage us on many levels, including emotionally. They are vibrant, rich, memorable and can intrinsically link our understanding of a topic to a meaningful summative ‘snapshot’. How we then ‘frame’ these images to understand and ‘decode’ their meaning can create its own problems, as the meaning is attached to an individual’s own understanding and experiences of the world. O’Neill points out that the ‘wrong images’ can be limiting at conveying a message at best, while at worst, they can reinforce prejudices, historical injustices and narratives surrounding colonialism, or the ‘white saviour’. The dangers of using unrelatable images can also distance and disconnect an audience from action, leaving them feeling helpless and insignificant. ‘Climate visuals can marginalise and exclude some of the most vulnerable people, places and non- humans.’ As long as climate related images choose to ignore, reduce and redact, then our understanding of the climate issue is that it is compartmentalised and trivial. But, climate imagery remains largely confined to a narrow set of visual tropes: such as polar bears, melting icebergs, wind turbines, the Earth in space or a politician behind a lectern. Climate images are often distant from people’s everyday lives and experience.’
Despite this, O’Neill is at pains to point out that she is not engaging in a ‘blame game’, but rather highlighting the processes which lead to these image outcomes of marginalisation and saturation. ‘It is important to note here that the intention is not to condemn any particular images, their makers or readers.’ She acknowledges that, ‘Climate visuals move through a complex, global media ecosystem’ and that better climate journalistic training and creating bespoke visual libraries may be needed to reshape better climate discourse. She notes the rise of AI generated imagery and argues that this ‘risks reinforcing cliched, stereotyped, biased, inaccurate, misleading or unethical visual content.’
Adaption imagery is necessary
O’Neill repeats that adaptation imagery is necessary with regards to heatwaves, sea-level rise, flooding and energy use. Adaptation imagery is important because it reflects and shapes how we think and feel about living with climate risk. She urges that a more equitable, just and representative narrative for climate adaptation, one which is both respectful and sensitive to the needs of different audiences.
She cautions against the Global North tendency for ‘fun in the sun’ images of heatwaves and notes that heatwave visuals marginalise vulnerable people in a way that is seen less in the Global South., ‘Global South countries have a strong visual discourse portraying the impacts of extreme heat on vulnerable people, and the ‘fun in the sun’ visual frame is less common.’
With regards to the ‘framing’ of sea-level rise, O’Neill cautions against a Global North ideology that ignores the land-ocean relationship of ‘small island states’ and posits the sea as inherently threatening. As Tuvaluan Taukiei Kitara explains: We see ourselves as not small island states, but large ocean states… we include land and sea together. They’re both in one.’
‘The Visual Life of Climate Change’ continues this clinical dissection of climate images, as it explores the narratives contained in the ubiquitous imagery of polar bears, the visual tropes of energy use, through smokestacks and wind turbines, as well as the iconography of the ‘Madonna and Child’ victim images of extreme weather disasters. Her overall energy message is one of reframing energy stories away from issue-based narratives and towards action- based stories.
O’Neill then offers examples of climate imagery which has been successful in raising climate awareness- with the examples of the ‘Climate Spiral’ and the ‘Climate Stripes’. She highlights that there exists ways of creating images which resonate strongly with the non-scientific public, which can be amplified and made freely accessible. The ‘correct’ visuals can act as a means of bridging the gap between public consciousness and government policy change.
Climate visuals move through a complex, global media ecosystem
O’Neill finally comments on the role of the media system and their role in influencing visual climate discourse and climate representation. Sadly, she also notes the business model of many media outlets and their desire for engagement and shareability, especially in an online world to increase viewers and revenue. She acknowledges that this may in turn favour certain types of visual coverage, including the ‘doom and gloom messaging’, which is beginning to dominate, and lead to a greater sense of apathy and alienation and therefore be counter-productive to the aim of climate messaging.
We need to see more climate visuals which lead to us being empowered to take action and O’Neill’s book charts the various issues which are currently holding us back.
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Review of ‘Green Thinking- Unlearning Outdated Ideas in Science, Economics and Politics’ by Natalie Bennett
In ‘Green Thinking’, Natalie Bennett calls for a deep, transformative, ‘breaking the chains’ moment, to move us away from outdated ideas which promote harmful outcomes. It challenges assumptions and models and really is a ‘breakthrough book’- the transformative model that we need for the 21st-century.
She argues that, ‘We are in the Age of Shocks- economic, geopolitical, political, environmental, health.’ Shocks which have been built on and come from, as yet, an insidious, intertwined ideology which is simply self-serving. ‘The status quo is embedded. It is backed by powerful economic forces that have come to dominate under the current thinking.’
‘Green Thinking’ urges us to unlearn. To unlearn, question and scrutinise previous modes of thought and behaviour which have caused much of the planet-trashing mess that we are in. Bennett reminds us that ‘History is not prewritten, but made by the actions of people.’ Therefore, a way of thinking, relevant to the 21st-century built on new modes of symbiotic thinking rather than the ‘old ways which lead only to disaster.’ We are asked to unlearn economic competition and the dangers of free-market politics. We are asked to unlearn human arrogance and be more humble in our relationship with other species. We are asked to unlearn that ‘money makes the world go around’ and to unlearn the ‘deification’ of national and global leaders, who will not solve our problems. Bennett asks us to look at, though not exploit Indigenous teachings and modes of thought. ‘We need to unlearn the idea that true knowledge comes only from our own tradition.’
Avoiding a planetary disaster
She warns, with great clarity, that 20th-century economic, geopolitical, commercial led interests, have left us with an increasing threat to manage.
‘The 20th-century answer was markets- let them, which increasingly meant the financial sector- decide what was “good”, what knowledge should be generated and implemented. That has got us into the planet- trashing mess we are now.’
She acknowledges that exposing the threats from these outdated modes, based on human superiority and ‘egotism’ over the rest of the planet- where resource stripping and exploitation are to be celebrated and labelled as success, will be a difficult one for us to face. The idea that humans are the peak of evolution and the rest of life on the Earth here, is ready and almost willing, for our exploitation and control, is hugely pervasive in our political practice and daily life.
But, at the same time, she challenges the reader to ask why these systems are in place in the first place and who they benefit. ‘This book seeks to lay out and expose the profound failure of 20th-century approaches. I can only expect a reaction from calling out the failure of many deeply embedded beliefs, but they must be confronted, their deeply damaged nature and threat exposed.’
Cooperation and collective interests, rather than vested ones should be the dynamic and transformative thinking required for our place in the 21st-century world. Doing what we have done before and expecting things to change magically through innovative technology, can only lead us deeper into collective ruin. ‘Competition not cooperation, individualism rather than working together, more finance and fewer relationships, working harder and longer within the system we have now, can only amplify our problems. They are what got us here in the first place.’
Bennett finds hope in the evidence that at times, humanity has displayed the courage and action to make the systemic changes that are needed. ‘We have as a species and a genus have displayed wisdom before.’ She explores the relationship between humans and nature and demonstrates that our understanding of non-human life is still being extended further and that we are still learning more about our fellow species on the planet and that we should, ‘Change our behaviour in line with our 21st-century knowledge of the sophisticated intelligence, emotions and relationships of our relatives and compatriots of the more-than-human world, to remove the blinkers carefully maintained by commercial interests.’
Bennett makes it clear that it is up to us to choose- to decide- what the 21st-century has in store for us. Ideologies that suited a few in the past cannot now suit the majority of humans on the planet. Times, societies and moral imperatives have all changed dramatically in the past 100 years and the nostalgic, rose-tinted views of past economic lives and communities, are fooling us to believe in the status quo at all costs. She maintains that there are, ‘No excuses, the responsibility is ours’
‘Green Thinking’ or ‘green thinking’ finally asks us to move away from the 20th-century stock reply of ‘can we make a profit from doing this?’ to a more cooperative and preventative question of ‘should we be doing this?’
Bennett’s ‘Green Thinking’ is meant to be challenging. It is meant to expose the self-serving ideologies of the past and move us as a species away from the ‘dead hand of financial dictatorship’ to a ‘post-growth, probiotic’ style of politics- one which encompasses rather than excludes.
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Climate Thoughts with Brian 