Climate Thoughts with Brian

Robinson’s latest book, The Nature of Pandemics could not have come at a more timely moment, as hospital admissions of flu patients in the UK rose by 55% in one week owing to a winter ‘super flu’.

Robinson explores what lessons have been learned from the Covid-19 global pandemic and warns that a proactive approach to the next Disease X is far more sensible than a reaction which might come too late. 

This book repeatedly urges for action and awareness when it comes to emerging diseases and strongly warns about the dangers of the deadly duo of apathy and ignorance. As Robinson notes, ‘Complacency is the breeding ground for disease. Where vigilance falters, contagions thrive.’

The Nature of Pandemics begins by looking to the past for clues and lessons, noting the incredible bravery of the villagers of Eyam, Derbyshire in 1665, who, through their actions, taught the future about containment. ‘Exploring the annals of past pandemics can help illuminate the path ahead, casting light on future outbreaks.’ Robinson begins the book by ensuring that his readers are clear on the various terms of pandemics, outbreaks and epidemics, especially in the modern world, where they are often used interchangeably by the general public.

Throughout the text, he convincingly argues for a ‘One Heath’ approach and mindset- an approach which ‘acknowledges that the health of humans, non-human animals and our environment are inseparably linked.’ He cautions that finger-pointing and blame do not by themselves offer solutions and can oftentimes hide the solutions, if the closeness between humans, non-humans and the environment is not well understood. ‘Yet pointing the finger at wildlife for pandemics is off track. It’s a misguided heuristic that overlooks the complexity of diseases, ecosystems and human antics. It’s also a way to keep solutions buried in a grave of misconception.’

When we push nature to its limits, nature pushes back.

Dilution, diversity and amplification effects are all explored in the text, with human behaviour placed under the microscope. Robinson argues that global movement of people can create a convenient mode of transport for pathogens. ‘Millions of people cross oceans and borders each year. As we do, we provide a comfy vehicle for pathogens.’ The change in land-use, from practices such as deforestation, and also a lack of awareness on the importance of soil, can allow for the evolution, emergence and mutation of diseases.

‘Over 30% of new diseases reported since 1960 can be attributed to deforestation and land-use changes. Closeness is an issue. By changing the land, we increase human-wildlife contact.’ Throughout the book then, Robinson argues that spillover events can not be described as ‘accidents’, but are a predictable outcome from the closeness between species and the pressure of conditions that this can bring. ‘Spillovers don’t just happen. They’re a consequence of fractured ecosystems and close interactions between humans and other organisms. ‘When we push nature to its limits, nature pushes back.’

Disease X- It’s Coming

‘The Nature of Pandemics’ should not be read as an ‘alarmist’ or ‘doomist’ text- instead it rationally outlines the likelihood of global pandemics and the emergence of ‘new’ or ‘old’ diseases that are flourishing in our world, sometimes through political inaction, or through the dangers of antimicrobial resistance. ‘Disease X symbolises the perpetual race against new and evolving pathogens. It’s an ongoing struggle to keep pace with microbial evolution- a relentless drive for survival.’ Disease X itself is simply a term used to represent the next unknown pathogen that could cause a severe pathogen that could cause a severe pandemic, so to some extent, we are both preparing for a ‘known unknown’ as well as an ‘unknown unknown.’ At present, the statistics warn that another event like COVID-19 is coming.

‘The current likelihood of experiencing another COVID-19-like event in one’s lifetime is 38%, a figure that may double in the coming decades due to increasing rates of disease emergence.’

What was particularly refreshing about Robinson’s arguments was that he did not shy away from highlighting that pandemics, such as bird flu, within non-human species are already happening at an alarming rate. Treating the ‘non-human animal kingdom’, in a medical sense as well through vaccinations, to ensure positive health could help bring stability to linked species and food webs.

A critical crossroads

In order to ‘stay ahead of the curve’ then, Robinson suggests that re-building the connection to the natural world could be seen as a public health intervention. He argues that, ‘It’s clear that our relationship with the natural world is at a critical crossroads.’ He highlights examples of nature regeneration, green prescriptions, community level work that together sow the necessary seeds of change that can help address the looming and current threats. ‘In a world facing a double burden of disease, from contagious outbreaks to chronic illnesses, reconnecting with the natural world may offer a powerful form of relief.’

As per his other books, Robinson challenges us to shift our mindsets and arrogance about our place in the ‘animal kingdom’ and begins to suggest that our relationship with nature should be heading towards a symbiotic relationship where all parties mutually benefit. He writes, ‘We must recognise that the health of our planet and its inhabitants is inextricably linked to our actions.’

Pandemics happen. They exist. They have existed and they will exist. They are a part of our world. We need to learn how to stop them from being our world. The Nature of Pandemics by Robinson, charts this course for us.